What changes in geopolitics will define 2026? Jörg Rocholl, President of ESMT Berlin, shares his thoughts on the year ahead.
Whoever might have thought that 2026 would become less uncertain and less surprising than 2025, should adjust their prior beliefs just after 10 days in the new year. Be it Venezuela, Iran, Greenland, and of course Ukraine – the geopolitics dynamics remain strong.
Europe must react by moving from geopolitical awareness to geopolitical agency. The decisive question is whether Europe can act with strategic intent, rather than continuing to respond to dynamics shaped elsewhere. This requires more than political alignment. It depends on Europe’s economic capacity to invest, innovate, and scale. Without sustained growth and functioning capital markets, geopolitical agency will remain aspirational rather than operational.
Three areas are needed: First, security. Europe’s ability to strengthen defense cooperation and take greater responsibility for its own security architecture will define its credibility as a geopolitical actor. Second, industrial and technological policy. Decisions on semiconductors, artificial intelligence, clean energy technologies, and critical infrastructure will determine whether Europe can remain competitive and innovative. AI, in particular, will test Europe’s capacity to combine technological leadership with democratic values and effective regulation. Third, global partnerships. The EU must diversify its trade relationships, limit strategic risks and dependencies, protect critical sectors, and ensure fair competition, while deepening economic and political ties with partners in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
2026 will show whether Europe can translate dialogue into action, align security, trade, and industrial policy, and turn strategic ambition into lasting global influence. This will ultimately be a test of Europe’s ability to set priorities, follow through on reforms, and maintain political and economic commitment.
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