Outlook 2026: Martín Guzmán

Globalization is not ending; it is being fundamentally restructured. Shifts in geopolitics and technological change are pushing the global economy into a new phase. Supply chains, trade flows, and economic interdependencies are being redrawn around new risk assessments - primarily the risks of trade policy and national security, but also the vulnerability associated with debt in developing economies, which increasingly shapes their relationships with both the United States and China.

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2026 may be defined by a phase of geo-economic fragmentation

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2026 may be defined by a phase of geo-economic fragmentation: a world in which trade, investment, and supply-chain integration become more strongly determined by the interplay between geopolitical blocs. The United States is already treating international financial agreements and trade deals as two sides of the same strategic coin.

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Sanctions and export controls are likely to become routine instruments of global competition

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The recent swap agreement between the United States Treasury and Argentina, followed almost simultaneously by the announcement of a trade deal, offers a clear example of how this emerging approach to foreign policy is taking shape.In this environment, sanctions and export controls are likely to become routine instruments of global competition.

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The US midterm election increases volatility

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Finally, 2026 is a US midterm election year, a factor that may intensify domestic political polarization and add a layer of unpredictability to future US international financial and trade policy. For countries highly exposed to shifts in US policy - whether through trade, debt, or financial flows - this heightened volatility could translate into more uncertain expectations.