Advancing Alliances in Times of Uncertainty

Bank of America has been Berlin Global Dialogue’s Principal Partner for over four years now. From your point of view, how has the geopolitical landscape changed since the first annual summit in 2023?

The biggest change is that geopolitics has become economics. Energy, technology, supply chains, critical infrastructure and access to capital are increasingly viewed through the lens of economic security. That is changing how governments set policy and how companies decide where to invest, manufacture and source.

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But I don’t think globalization is over. It is being rewired. Companies still want to grow internationally, and capital still needs to move across borders. The challenge now is to build greater resilience without sacrificing the openness, competition and investment that drive growth. Economic security should not mean economic isolation.

Markets, supply chains, and technology are increasingly arenas of strategic competition. How is Bank of America adapting to this new reality?

It starts with our clients. They are thinking much more strategically about where they invest, how they secure supply chains, where they hold liquidity and how they maintain access to markets and technology. Our Global Research team has been tracking this shift for some time: supply chains are increasingly being designed not simply for maximum efficiency, but for resilience and optionality. Our job is to connect those decisions with capital.; and our global footprint gives us a particularly broad perspective. We have relationships with 78% of the Global Fortune 500 and operate across more than 35 countries. Germany is a good example: we work with around 77% of the DAX 40, and we are a Top 3 investment bank in EMEA. Meaning - we see these changes directly through the decisions some of the world’s largest companies and investors are making. That’s increasingly what clients need from a global bank: capital, connectivity and execution across markets.

Today, how much of Bank of America’s compliance and risk architecture is built around geopolitical rather than financial risk?

I wouldn’t separate the two. Geopolitical risk increasingly becomes financial risk; through energy and commodity prices, currencies, sanctions, trade, cyber risk, and supply chains. What has changed is the speed at which those risks can move across markets and geographies. A development in one part of the world can very quickly affect financing conditions or investment decisions somewhere else. Banks have always been in the business of managing risk. The objective isn’t to eliminate it; it’s to understand it, remain resilient through it, and continue helping clients deploy capital productively.

Major elections across the world are reshaping alliances almost every year now. How is this impacting financial markets?

Markets ultimately care about what elections mean for policy; trade-, fiscal-, energy-, defense- and investment-policy and regulation. What is different today is that economic policy is increasingly being used to pursue strategic objectives. Industrial policy is back, governments are investing in strategic industries, and companies are reassessing supply chains and capital expenditure. That creates uncertainty and sometimes volatility. But volatility is not the same as dysfunction. One thing markets have demonstrated repeatedly is their ability to adapt. Capital moves, companies adjust, and new opportunities emerge. Our role is to help clients navigate that transition rather than try to predict every political outcome.

There is growing talk of de-dollarisation and alternative payment systems, especially among BRICS and Gulf states. Do you see any credible erosion of the dollar’s centrality in global finance, or is this more noise than signal?

I would distinguish diversification from displacement. In a more multipolar world, it is entirely rational for countries to diversify trading relationships, reserves and payment channels. We are already seeing new trade and investment corridors developing between the Gulf, Asia and Africa. But replacing the dollar is a very different proposition. Its position rests on the depth and liquidity of US capital markets, convertibility, trusted institutions and an enormous financial ecosystem built over decades. I’ve said before that I don’t see evidence that the dollar has lost its supremacy. So I wouldn’t dismiss diversification - it is real. But a more multipolar global economy and a dollar-centered financial system can coexist.

The theme of BGD 2026 is “Advancing Alliances for the New Era.” In today’s political and economic environment, how can and should new alliances between business and government look?

They need to be practical and focused on investment. Look at Europe. Economic security requires significant investment in energy, defense, technology, AI, digital infrastructure and supply-chain resilience. Governments cannot deliver that alone. Private capital has to be part of the solution. Europe has enormous strengths: savings, talent, world-class companies and deep capital markets. The opportunity is to mobilize those strengths more effectively: governments creating clear, predictable frameworks, and businesses bringing capital, innovation, and execution. And this is broader than Europe. Latin America, Asia, the Middle East and Africa are an important part of the emerging global economic architecture. They have fast-growing markets, critical resources and major infrastructure and energy requirements, alongside significant pools of domestic capital. The opportunity is to connect those pools with global institutional capital and create investable projects at scale. We are also seeing stronger investment corridors linking Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. That is an important feature of this new era: alliances are becoming more diverse, not less important. For me, that is what “Advancing Alliances” are ultimately about. Build resilience, mobilize capital, and keep markets connected. Economic security should not mean retreating behind borders. The objective is to build resilience while keeping capital, trade and investment flowing.