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What inspired "Advancing Alliances for the New Era", the theme of BGD 2026? Lars-Hendrik Röller, Founder and Chair of Berlin Global Dialogue, shares his thoughts.
This year’s theme reflects the new era of geopolitical competition that we are in. For decades, economic integration and the rules-based international order contributed to stability and prosperity. Yet this system did not solve all problems. While it benefited many, others were left behind, particularly in parts of the developing world. We are now in an environment where new alliances are emerging, old alliances are being reconfigured, and economic strength is increasingly weaponized by major powers.
This presents both challenges and opportunities for businesses and governments. On the one hand, companies are pressured to build resilience, secure critical capabilities, and adapt their business models. On the other hand, governments are pressed to forge new alliances and redefine the nexus between national security and economic strength.
At BGD 2026, we will explore how alliances of agency can enable more effective decision-making and collaboration between business and government to meet the demands of this new era.
A great deal has changed over the past four years. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine marked a major turning point, triggering a profound shift in Europe’s security and energy policy. Since then, additional conflicts and rising geopolitical tensions – from ongoing volatility in U.S.-China relations to instability in the Middle East and growing strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific – have further reshaped the geopolitical landscape.
At the same time, economic interdependencies are increasingly used as instruments of political leverage. Energy supplies, critical raw materials, and key technologies have become strategic assets, as seen in export controls on advanced semiconductors or intensifying competition over supply chains for batteries and rare earths.
The rapid rise of artificial intelligence is adding another transformative layer. Leadership in AI and advanced computing is quickly becoming a central factor in economic competitiveness, technological sovereignty, and national security.
These developments have produced three major structural shifts:
First, they have significantly heightened awareness of the need for resilience against future shocks. Governments and businesses alike are placing greater emphasis on sovereignty and on reducing excessive dependencies in critical sectors such as energy, technology, and raw materials.
Second, global economic power is gradually being redistributed. Emerging economies and regional powers are gaining influence, while established powers are reassessing their strategic positions in a more competitive global environment.
Third, we are witnessing the formation of new alliances alongside a noticeable weakening of traditional multilateralism. Cooperation is becoming more selective and interest-driven, often shaped and organized around specific issues rather than shared global governance frameworks.
The geopolitical changes we are witnessing are fundamentally reshaping the notion of alliances. We are seeing a clear move toward more bilateral and flexible partnerships, as countries seek arrangements that are faster, more pragmatic, and closely aligned with their strategic interests .
At the same time, there is a strong push for diversification. Rather than relying heavily on a small number of partners, governments are expanding their networks and deepening ties with a broader range of regions. The Mercosur Agreement and the EU-India Trade Agreement are prime examples of this.
For Europe, these developments have also underscored the importance of unity and reform. We need to reduce regulatory burdens, deepen our common market, strengthen our defence capacities, and enhance our overall competitiveness to continue to be relevant in the world.
This is one of the central themes of this year’s BGD. There are two important business perspectives that need to be better integrated into policymaking.
First, the idea of “enlarging the cake” through innovation, trade, and technological solutions. Only if we increase prosperity through technological progress can we effectively address challenges such as climate change, health, economic prosperity, security, and economic development.
Second, the international perspective. Businesses create value across multiple geographic markets, and the benefits of technology often accrue globally. This international dimension should be carefully considered when discussing national policies.
We chose these pillars when we founded BGD more than three years ago because they represent the fundamental forces shaping global prosperity. While the geopolitical environment has changed significantly since then, these core challenges remain as relevant as ever – and they are deeply interconnected. Climate change is a good example. As geopolitical tensions and security concerns intensify, climate policy risks receiving less attention. Yet the threat it poses to our economies and our way of life is not diminishing. The same is true for the rise of protectionism and the fragmentation of global trade, which are reshaping how countries and companies operate internationally.
Addressing these challenges will require advancing new and stronger alliances – both between both business and government and among countries.
Lars-Hendrik Röller is the Founder and Chair of Berlin Global Dialogue and a Professor of Economics at ESMT Berlin. He previously served as Chief Economic Advisor to former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as well as a G7 and G20 Sherpa. Prior to that, Röller was the Chief Competition Economist at the European Commission.Throughout his academic career, he taught at INSEAD, New York University, Stanford University, and the Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration.
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