As geopolitical fragmentation reshapes the global economy, resilience has become a priority for governments and businesses alike. Romario Yustinus Hasugian, a BGD Young Voice 2026 from Indonesia and MA candidate at Universitas Indonesia, argues that resilience now requires a new model of cooperation between Europe and the Global South—one built on shared benefits, responsibilities, and decision-making power.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently emphasized that amid rising geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation, "closer cooperation between governments and businesses is more critical than ever." Yet from the perspective of the Global South, one question remains: resilience for whom?
At Indonesia's 81st Independence Day ceremony, the military flyover accompanying President Prabowo Subianto offered a symbolic glimpse of a deeper shift. Beyond military bravado and public ceremonies, emerging economies are pursuing strategic autonomy through concrete measures: diversifying defense procurement, building domestic industrial capabilities, and strengthening control over critical supply chains. This comes amid rising military spending across all five global regions, according to SIPRI. In structural realist terms, these are rational self-help responses to uncertainty in an increasingly multipolar system.
For Europe, this is not a threat but an opportunity for more balanced burden-sharing. Resilience now requires moving beyond the traditional donor-recipient model toward Equitable Alliances: partnerships in which developed and developing countries share benefits, risks, responsibilities, and decision-making influence in proportion to their strategic contributions and exposure to global shocks. Emerging economies need to become co-architects of global governance, with the policy space to pursue their own development goals.
The transition to net zero is necessary. But asymmetric green policies can strain the stability of developing economies. Economist Hélène Rey's work on the global financial cycle illustrates how decisions in major economies can constrain the policy autonomy of others, while emerging markets must decarbonize and still secure reliable, affordable energy at scale.
The challenge is growing as economies become more digital. The IEA projects a sharp rise in electricity demand from data centers and AI through 2026. Many emerging economies face a real energy trilemma: balancing security, affordability, and sustainability. Nuclear energy, including emerging technologies such as Small Modular Reactors, alongside large-scale renewables, can form part of a reliable, low-carbon energy mix. With European expertise and targeted financing, developing countries can adopt these technologies safely and responsibly.
For Europe, this is not merely a matter of aid but a strategic investment. Germany's automotive sector, for example, relies on battery raw materials sourced through global supply chains, including from developing economies. If production in these economies remains reliant on fossil fuels, European firms will struggle to meet their ESG commitments.
The same logic applies to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Without financial support, it risks undermining the ILO´s principle of just transition. I would therefore recycle a portion of CBAM revenues into energy-transition infrastructure in affected countries. This would help accelerate decarbonization while strengthening trust in Europe's climate policy and creating incentives for deeper cooperation on energy technology, financing, and standards. Climate finance should also avoid conditionalities that unnecessarily constrain development priorities, and the international financial architecture should ensure that decarbonization does not erode fiscal sustainability. At home, green programs should be judged on measurable outcomes such as job creation and enhanced industrial capacity.
As Raúl Prebisch famously argued, developing economies risk remaining peripheral suppliers of low-value commodities. Many economies across the Global South are rejecting that role. Amid growing techno-nationalism, many countries increasingly treat technological capability as essential to sovereignty, expanding semiconductor capacity and building strategic industries from drones to autonomous systems. Indonesia's shift from raw nickel exporter to a growing player in the global battery ecosystem reflects this ambition, and it must include sustainable practices such as robust battery recycling.
This also serves Europe's de-risking agenda. The pandemic exposed the danger of relying on a single manufacturing hub. Supporting high-tech ecosystems across the Global South lets Europe diversify its production partners.
If I were Chancellor, I would push for major investment agreements to include incentives and enforceable commitments that promote technology transfer, particularly in R&D, rather than stopping at operational training. Local communities should be partners in this process, not just beneficiaries. Sensitive technologies, of course, require strong governance that balances intellectual property, national security, and non-proliferation.
Stronger regional security capabilities in developing countries could also contribute to securing critical Indo-Pacific trade routes and distributing security responsibilities more broadly. Co-creation generates not only economic value but a fairer distribution of security responsibility.
Alliances built around elite interests rest on fragile ground. My experience promoting payment-system interoperability at Bank Indonesia and my research on macroeconomic stability at the University of Indonesia have convinced me that transformation must reach every level of the economy. Resilience depends not only on macroeconomic indicators or defense capacity, but on whether local businesses can access markets and transact efficiently. Cross-border digital payments such as Indonesia’s QRIS can help. Experience in regions like Papua shows that physical infrastructure, digital connectivity, and financial literacy must advance together.
Digital infrastructure also needs human capital. European partnerships should support AI literacy and digital skills alongside digital public infrastructure, with appropriate safeguards for privacy and human rights. AI adoption should be designed to open markets for MSMEs, not widen the gap between large firms and small ones.
When MSMEs and workers gain access to technology, finance, and markets, resilience becomes broadly shared. Millions of digitally skilled young people can form a dynamic consumer and entrepreneurial class, a substantial market for European technology, software, and financial services. Investing in these capabilities advances development while also strengthening Europe's own long-term resilience.
The vision I propose would face fiscal constraints, populist pressures, and protectionism. Equitable Alliances should therefore start pragmatically, with bilateral pilots, and with clear objectives, measurable indicators, and transparent evaluation. Equality cannot be built overnight. It takes compromise, trust, and sustained commitment.
The international order is changing fundamentally. Open trade and strategic security will endure only if partnerships recognize and strengthen the agency of developing countries. We need an architecture in which resilience is a shared benefit, opportunity is reached through co-creation, and responsibility for stability is distributed more fairly.
The Global South is no longer merely a policy recipient or a consumer market. We are partners, innovators, and contributors to the direction of the global economy.
If I were Chancellor, I would ensure that Europe does not simply build alliances for the Global South but builds them together with the Global South.
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