Imagining 2050: Living in a Tariffed Digital World

In July 2025, a handshake in Scotland between Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen made headlines. The US/EU trade deal caught the media’s attention, but a subtle mention of keeping zero tariffs on e-transmissions went largely unnoticed. Not to me. During my time at the World Trade Organization (WTO), I followed this issue closely: a decades-old moratorium that has quietly kept digital products – from films to software – flowing freely across borders. Now, that safeguard faces its toughest test yet, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.

The year is 2050.

What was once the open, frictionless web has splintered into fortified digital territories, each nation erecting barriers in the name of sovereignty and revenue. Spontaneous digital discovery is a thing of the past. The term Internet itself feels archaic; replaced by fractured ecosystems called “Data Zones”, each one defined by tariff schedules and regulatory firewalls. A European tries to stream a South Korean film. A message pops up: “Cross-Zone Cultural Transmission Fee: 67.50 EUR.” There’s no way around it. Every movie, song, or e-book now carries a cost layered by tariffs negotiated, and often contested, between governments. Digital entertainment platforms have ruptured into regional plans, and VPNs (once a popular loophole) are now banned as tools of tariff evasion and digital contraband.  

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The digital bridge connecting ideas and cultures is breaking. Students across the globe are cut off from lectures by leading foreign schools. Access to resources that once fueled their curiosity and academic ambitions are now too expensive. Online discourse has regressed into regional echo chambers, reinforcing existing biases and mistrust between societies.

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Business innovation has stalled. Startups that once dreamed of scaling globally face an impossible tariff and regulation maze, and data localization requirements. Entrepreneurs spend more time on compliance than creation. Essential cloud tools – like project management suites, design software, and even basic office platforms – have become region-locked, unless additional steep fees are paid. Smaller firms, lacking the legal and financial firepower to navigate this reality, are effectively locked out of international markets.

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Even sustainability has taken an unexpected turn. As digital tariffs drove up costs, many turned back to physical media (DVDs, books, software). Warehouses and shipping lanes are active again. Whether this is better for the planet is still unclear: digital consumption relies on energy- hungry servers, but physical goods add emissions from production, packaging and transport.

Was anyone even watching?

Let’s take the time machine back to today. While the dystopian reality of “Data Zones” may seem remote, the forces pulling us in that direction are already gathering pace.

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Since 1998, the WTO moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions has underpinned the free flow of digital content across borders by prohibiting governments from imposing tariffs. It has been renewed time and again. The most recent extension, secured in March 2024, will expire in March 2026. But this time, renewal is far from guaranteed. Why?

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First, governments are increasingly seeking to reassert control over the digital economy. There are legitimate concerns over lost revenues and domestic digital industrialization. While many Free Trade Agreements ban such duties on e-transmissions, recent rhetoric – including the trend of trade deals being reopened for negotiation or Trump’s tariff threats on foreign films – suggests these protections could be at risk.  

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Second, multilateral institutions have failed to speak with one voice. Reports from various organizations have been used to justify both sides of the argument. In 2019, UNCTAD estimated that developing countries may forego over $10 billion annually in tariffs. Many argue that lifting the moratorium could help rebalance global digital trade. However, other assessments, including from the OECD, suggest these losses are modest compared to the broader benefits of duty-free digital trade: lower consumer prices, enhanced export competitiveness, and deeper integration into global value chains.

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And third: while a renewal is still possible, the tone has clearly changed. The latest WTO decision says only this: the moratorium will end in March 2026, at the latest. Can we really keep counting on it being saved again?  

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We often forget that one of globalization and open trade’s most powerful byproducts is the internet itself: the ability to access content, ideas, and marketplaces from around the world. What’s at stake isn’t just trade; it’s the free circulation of culture, knowledge, and information. True isolationism doesn’t only cut off economic exchange, it risks narrowing the intellectual and cultural space in which people live, think and grow. Without global openness, societies become more vulnerable to domestic narratives that go unchallenged.

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Trade diplomats and policymakers must not remain the sole custodians of a debate that affects us all. Citizens and consumers deserve to understand how today’s trade choices could raise tomorrow’s prices, fragment the web and impact our lives. Companies, in developed and developing countries alike, should weigh in – before rising barriers reshape markets they depend on. Media, civil society, and institutions must foster a more inclusive dialogue that balances global digital trade openness with other legitimate domestic priorities.

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Let’s not let ourselves be trapped in the wrong timeline.